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The general election is effectively over with two possible exceptions:
Obama dies. At this point even Howard Dean having an episode of sanity and going with the Republican solution of seating half of the FL and MI delegates will not put Hillary back in the running if Obama keeps breathing.
The Bush appointed prosecutor in the Rezko case indicts Obama prior to the election. Not only would this most likely backfire, Democratic party elder statesmen would examine the evidence and if need be replace Obama while claiming they were only obeying party rules. No matter what happens the Republican party is screwed to the wall. The proper time to indict for the already admitted 14K fence provided to Obama by Rezko is after the election. No matter what the Democrats do they are screwed.
In this election cycle with Iraq edging closer to becoming the battleground of the Middle East no Republican would be elected no matter what. The future war which could take many different forms includes: Turkey as the self appointed head of non-Arab Sunnis, Iran the defender of the Shia and a coalition of Arab Sunni powers probably financed by Saudi are good to go as soon as Bush leaves office. I will not speculate on what form the war will take because there are too many players to keep track of. In addition to the nations already mentioned Russia, Pakistan, Israel, Greece (because of Turkey), India (because of Pakistan), Italy, Germany, Spain, France, the UK, China, Japan and the US all have variant interests in such a war. Only Russia among the major players has a serious interest in peace and that because is because it is a gas and oil exporter that wants prices to stay high. War will lead to lower oil prices to finance arms and ammo purchases.
The American voter who is being hurt by high oil prices and the collapse in real estate wants a non-American war in Iraq. This is what Obama has promised to deliver. Obama will therefore win in November. There are several flies in this ointment:
Turkey wants to be seen as the secular modernizing force in the Middle East. Turkish voters also want to join the EU, resurrect the Ottoman Empire, stick a finger in Russia’s eye and do likewise to Iran. Voluntary deportation of Turkish Kurds to oil rich, Turkish protected Iraqi Kurdistan in return for the pipelines going through Anatolia is the most likely Turkish war aim. If something more or less like this is attained then Ankara’s goal will be to wait and seize. This will be a winning strategy.
Iran wants to establish a Shiite belt from the Pakistan border to the Lebanese shore. This will involve going through either Sunni Arab turf or going toe to toe with the Turks. Iran will seize Shiite Iraq and dig in.
The Sunni Arabs will eventually attack the Turks and/or the Iranians. If they have the sense God granted a goose they will attack the Iranians because Turks don’t normally think in terms of those I don’t kill today I can always kill tomorrow but rather kill them all and let God sort ‘em out. In addition Iran is not thrilled by the idea of leaving their eastern border bare for nuclear armed Pakistan. An attack on Iran is probably survivable, an attack on Turkey is only survivable by attractive women. So the key word is eventually. The Sunnis will buy more arms and ammo than they can find men to use them and neglect maintenance but they will wait a long time before committing suicide by frontal assault. Also they have a whole slew of weapons already so they won’t spend much to get more.
In other words the peace dividend will be small and shortlived. There may not be one at all. Naval and air purchases have been shortchanged since the start of the Iraqi war. A lot of ground combat equipment has been written off. Depending on who is talking war era expenditure rates will either last 2 or more years or the war on terror will grind to a halt due to a lack of equipment. The upcoming war in Iraq will kill off most of the Shaheeds but it won’t happen tomorrow what will happen after the inaugural ball is that the Democratic coalition will split. The fracture lines will be:
Getting the economy going.
Universal or at least extended healthcare.
The sinking dollar.
The need to rebuild the military.
Rising taxes and what to do about Roth conversions of retirement accounts in 2010. The income tax base is shinking.
Entitlement reform.
Book deals by the people in the Rezko trial. The sexy stuff will be anything and everything that accuses the sitting president of impropriety. Writing about a scandal that involves a senator or candidate for president is not nearly as salable. And whether or not found guilty all of the defendants will need money quick so they will need books that fly off the shelves.
Let’s see a laundry list of problems and a distracted president during a time of crisis. Looks like a guaranteed failed presidency.
3 Comments
Too bad Bush didn't put that much effort into figuring out the "what ifs" when he decided to invade Iraq in the first place.
What I find bizarre is I thought accepting a gift of more than $5,000 was an ethical violation that was automatically sent to the Senate ethics committee? Whether you want to talk about the enabling empty lot purchase or the fence building 5K is chump change in this case. Whoever is managing Republican strategy is a genius. 3 impeached presidents: all Democrats and two in less than 15 years? This is inspired politics. I hope many books are written about this campaign and the coming administration I want to study how this was done. This is shaping up into a political Cannae.