Turkish-delight

The AK Party and the EU in 2007
by
FAİK SAĞKOLTurkey has a come a long way since the start of the EU accession negotiations in October 2005. Scores of reform packets have been enthusiastically enacted by Parliament.
However, their implementation has lacked the same eagerness. This is still an important question in Turkey’s homework with regards to what the Copenhagen criteria set forth by the EU. Thus, its progress in the coming years is still to be seen.
Regarding Turkey’s relationship with the EU, 2007 carries the prospect of yielding fruitful negotiations or a year fraught with anxiety and confusion as it was deemed by the coalition governments of the pre-Justice and Development Party (AK Party) reign, which stranded Turkey in the midst of political and economic despair.
The first factor that will pave the way for one of the scenarios mentioned above is the presidential elections in April. As the dominant party in Parliament and the occupier of the government post, it is for the AK Party to decide whom to name as a candidate in the presidential elections. Although it is highly likely that the AK Party will choose a nominee for the post from the party’s affiliates or at least a figure close to the AK Party, it is of profound importance that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his colleagues choose candidate(s) acceptable to the majority in Parliament, including smaller parties, civil organizations and citizens. However, a major obstacle will be generated if Erdogan nominates himself as a candidate for the presidential post and call for his party’s endorsement, which will most probably materialize.
Is the time appropriate for Erdogan’s candidacy for the presidency, and who will lead the AK Party? It was formed a very short time before the general elections in August 2002, and its landslide election victory over the other well-established parties in the Turkish political arena is owed to Erdogan’s charismatic, strong and popular leadership. Although current Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul is also a very influential figure within the party ranks, his admired political stance is somewhat overshadowed by Erdogan, who seems to be firmly ensconced a few steps up on the ladder. Thus, Erdogan’s candidacy for the presidency could jeopardize the AK Party’s aspirations to emerge as the strongest party in the upcoming elections. Granted that party leaders are the strongest factors garnering votes in both general and local elections, Erdogan’s absence as the leader could pull down the AK Party’s votes in the general elections and thus lead to electoral decline, a possible loss of majority in Parliament and another nightmare coalition government.
Another important point to note is that the AK Party is still in its early stages of development with time still on its hands before becoming a full-fledged political party in the Turkish political arena. if there were to be a change in party leadership, it would be damaging to the party itself and to its popularity in Turkey. It could lead to a nasty leadership crisis between Gul and other candidates aspiring for leadership and to an electoral loss. Because of this, it is immensely important that Erdogan stay as the leader of the party and acquire a possible second term as prime minister. Erdogan’s leadership is crucial for continuing on with the domestic economic and political policies that, to some extent, got Turkey back onto its own feet and enabled it to strive for further economic and political developments for possible accession to the EU.
The second decisive factor is the general elections in November. The landslide victory of the AK Party in previous general elections has brought about a great deal of change to political life in Turkey. After many years of two or three-party coalition governments, which have shattered Turkey economically and politically and led to the loss of Turkey’s reputation in the international arena, including impeding its long-running relations with EU, the stunning election win of the AK Party has been of tremendous relief for Turkey.
Since the enactment of the final constitution subsequent to the coup d’état in 1980, no coalition government was able to stay in office for more than two years. These unstable political times, worsened by trimming economic conditions leading to long years of recession, has brought Turkey into a political and economic slump. As a result of these conditions Turkey’s legacy of Westernization came to a halt. The already dizzy relationship between Turkey and EU that has existed since the early 1960s was covered with dark clouds.
With the emergence of the AK Party, those dark clouds began to disperse. With 363 parliamentary deputies out of a total of 550, the AK Party formed a very strong single-party government. This single party government empowered the AK Party to go forward with major political and economic reforms in the context of the Copenhagen criteria. Although there are still scores of shortcomings with the implementation of these reforms, the enthusiastic efforts of Prime Minister Erdoğan and his colleagues were awarded with the start of EU accession negotiations in October 2005. And now, although the full marriage between Turkey and the EU has yet to happen, the start of accession negotiations is a milestone in Turkey’s relationship with the EU and, while not for certain, it has truly increased Turkey’s chances for EU membership.
So in regard to further political and economic improvement in the context of the Copenhagen criteria and the prospect of Turkey’s full-membership in the EU, it is immensely important that the AK Party win the general elections with adequate votes to form another majority single-party government for a second successive five-year term. Experiences from past coalition governments and what the AK Party has achieved in the past four years tells us it is very likely, if not certain, that only another non-coalition AK Party government with a strong majority in Parliament can lead Turkey domestically and internationally, especially with the EU.
However, if the AK Party and Erdoğan were to lose votes in the upcoming general elections to the extent that it would necessitate the forming of another nightmare-coalition government, I suspect there is little doubt that Turkey will return to a pre-AK Party government period. The coalition partners will each try to impose their own programs with their own styles, fight with each other continuously and try knocking each other out. Another unstable government would create gloomy looking economic conditions yet again.
Therefore, I believe these two factors will be decisive in Turkey’s relationship with EU in the coming years. It will be make-or-break for Turkey to join the in EU. Faik SAĞKOL / From Political Science at the University of Salzburg

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